Playoff odds › NFC North
Minnesota Vikings playoff chances
6–2 · 3rd in the NFC North · the No. 6 seed if the season ended today · rating +0.3 (17th of 32)
The Minnesota Vikings have a 70% chance to make the playoffs and a 19% chance to win the NFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind DET in the NFC North (head-to-head); behind DET in the NFC order (division tiebreaker (only the best-ranked club of a division takes part)).
How the Vikings’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 54% | 29% |
| After week 1 | 63% | 31% |
| After week 2 | 73% | 43% |
| After week 3 | 82% | 48% |
| After week 4 | 76% | 45% |
| After week 5 | 84% | 48% |
| After week 6 | 85% | 45% |
| After week 7 | 88% | 51% |
| After week 8 | 83% | 34% |
| After week 9 | 70% | 19% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 70% | 19% |
Where the Vikings could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Vikings need to make the playoffs?
How the Vikings’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (51% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 10 wins (20% of the seasons): in 73%. Help that matters most then: SF over SEA (week 12): 78% if so, 65% if not; DAL over SEA (week 13): 80% if so, 69% if not.
- 9 wins (15% of the seasons): in 21%. Help that matters most then: SF over SEA (week 12): 27% if so, 16% if not; PHI over SEA (week 15): 29% if so, 19% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (12% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Vikings need?
How often the Vikings finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 4% | >99% | 95% |
| 13 | 10% | >99% | 74% |
| 12 | 16% | >99% | 36% |
| 11½ | 1% | 99% | 16% |
| 11 | 21% | 98% | 8% |
| 10½ | 1% | 87% | 1% |
| 10 | 20% | 73% | 1% |
| 9½ | 1% | 38% | <1% |
| 9 | 15% | 21% | <1% |
| 8 | 8% | 1% | <1% |
| 7 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Vikings’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at GBweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · GB by 3 | 39% | 87% | 58% | 32% | 10% |
| at SFweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 8:20 PM · SF by 3.5 | 38% | 84% | 61% | 28% | 13% |
| vs ATLweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 59% | 79% | 57% | 24% | 11% |
| vs CARweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 63% | 78% | 56% | 23% | 11% |
| at NEweek 14 · Thu Dec 10, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 44% | 80% | 62% | 26% | 13% |
| vs DETweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 47% | 83% | 59% | 31% | 7% |
| vs WASweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 61% | 77% | 59% | 23% | 12% |
| at NYJweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 61% | 76% | 61% | 23% | 12% |
| vs CHIweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 45% | 82% | 61% | 30% | 9% |
Who should Vikings fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Vikings’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| NE over DET (away) | 71% | 68% | 22% | 17% |
| LV over SEA (home) | 72% | 69% | 19% | 19% |
| ARI over LA (home) | 72% | 69% | 19% | 19% |
| KC over ATL (away) | 70% | 69% | 19% | 19% |
| DAL over SF (home) | 70% | 69% | 19% | 19% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Vikings, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| BUF over CHIweek 15 | 70% | 68% | 22% | 16% |
| ATL over DETweek 13 | 71% | 69% | 23% | 17% |
| NO over CHIweek 11 | 72% | 69% | 24% | 18% |
| TB over DETweek 11 | 71% | 69% | 23% | 17% |
| MIA over CHIweek 14 | 72% | 69% | 23% | 18% |
| JAX over CHIweek 13 | 70% | 68% | 22% | 16% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Vikings finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 16% of the seasons: won 11%, lost 5%. Decided by head-to-head (4%), conference record (4%), division record (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (2%), record in common games (2%), strength of victory (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 11% of the seasons: won 6%, lost 4%. Decided by head-to-head (6%), division record (3%), record in common games (1%), conference record (1%).
Minnesota Vikings: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work