Playoff odds › AFC East
New England Patriots playoff chances
5–4 · 2nd in the AFC East · the No. 7 seed if the season ended today · rating +0.5 (16th of 32)
The New England Patriots have a 57% chance to make the playoffs and a 7% chance to win the AFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of CLE in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Patriots’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 74% | 49% |
| After week 1 | 71% | 40% |
| After week 2 | 76% | 38% |
| After week 3 | 52% | 21% |
| After week 4 | 64% | 32% |
| After week 5 | 72% | 35% |
| After week 6 | 76% | 35% |
| After week 7 | 66% | 26% |
| After week 8 | 72% | 24% |
| After week 9 | 56% | 7% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 57% | 7% |
Where the Patriots could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Patriots need to make the playoffs?
How the Patriots’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 11 wins or more (21% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (21% of the seasons): in 92%. Help that matters most then: JAX over HOU (week 15): 95% if so, 87% if not; IND over HOU (week 11): 96% if so, 90% if not.
- 9 wins (23% of the seasons): in 56%. Help that matters most then: JAX over HOU (week 15): 63% if so, 46% if not; IND over HOU (week 11): 68% if so, 53% if not.
- 8 wins (18% of the seasons): in 13%. Help that matters most then: IND over HOU (week 11): 21% if so, 11% if not; JAX over HOU (week 15): 17% if so, 8% if not.
- 7 wins or fewer (14% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Patriots need?
How often the Patriots finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 1% | >99% | 72% |
| 12 | 6% | >99% | 42% |
| 11 | 14% | >99% | 17% |
| 10 | 21% | 92% | 5% |
| 9½ | 1% | 63% | 2% |
| 9 | 23% | 56% | 1% |
| 8½ | 1% | 17% | 1% |
| 8 | 18% | 13% | <1% |
| 7 | 10% | 1% | <1% |
| 6 | 4% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Patriots’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at DETweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 9:30 AM · DET by 2.5 | 41% | 72% | 46% | 12% | 4% |
| at LACweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 65% | 67% | 38% | 9% | 3% |
| vs BUFweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 38% | 74% | 46% | 15% | 1% |
| vs MINweek 14 · Thu Dec 10, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 56% | 68% | 43% | 9% | 4% |
| at KCweek 15 · Mon Dec 21, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 36% | 76% | 46% | 11% | 5% |
| at NYJweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 62% | 66% | 42% | 9% | 4% |
| vs DENweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 47% | 70% | 45% | 10% | 4% |
| vs MIAweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 74% | 62% | 40% | 8% | 4% |
Who should Patriots fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Patriots’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| NYJ over BUF (home) | 57% | 57% | 15% | 5% |
| ATL over KC (home) | 59% | 55% | 7% | 7% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 57% | 55% | 7% | 7% |
| CIN over PIT (home) | 57% | 55% | 7% | 7% |
| GB over MIN (home) | 57% | 56% | 7% | 7% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Patriots, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| MIA over BUFweek 11 | 57% | 57% | 17% | 6% |
| KC over BUFweek 12 | 56% | 57% | 12% | 4% |
| JAX over HOUweek 15 | 60% | 52% | 7% | 7% |
| NYJ over BUFweek 18 | 57% | 57% | 12% | 6% |
| IND over HOUweek 11 | 62% | 55% | 7% | 7% |
| MIA over BUFweek 17 | 56% | 57% | 12% | 6% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Patriots finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 20% of the seasons: won 18%, lost 2%. Decided by conference record (11%), head-to-head (3%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (3%), a head-to-head sweep (1%), record in common games (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 4% of the seasons: won 4%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (4%).
New England Patriots: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work