Playoff odds › NFC South
New Orleans Saints playoff chances
3–5 · 2nd in the NFC South · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (12th in the NFC) · rating −1.9 (20th of 32)
The New Orleans Saints have a 22% chance to make the playoffs and a 21% chance to win the NFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: behind CAR in the NFC South (division record).
How the Saints’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 36% | 25% |
| After week 1 | 37% | 31% |
| After week 2 | 47% | 40% |
| After week 3 | 39% | 34% |
| After week 4 | 20% | 16% |
| After week 5 | 14% | 12% |
| After week 6 | 20% | 15% |
| After week 7 | 14% | 13% |
| After week 8 | 15% | 14% |
| After week 9 | 22% | 21% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 22% | 21% |
Where the Saints could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Saints need to make the playoffs?
How the Saints’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10 wins or more (6% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 9 wins (10% of the seasons): in 79%. Help that matters most then: DET over TB (week 11): 84% if so, 73% if not; BAL over TB (week 14): 86% if so, 75% if not.
- 8 wins (17% of the seasons): in 36%. Help that matters most then: DET over TB (week 11): 43% if so, 27% if not; BAL over TB (week 14): 45% if so, 30% if not.
- 7 wins (21% of the seasons): in 6%. No single other game moves that by five points or more.
- 6½ wins or fewer (45% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Saints need?
How often the Saints finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 10 | 4% | 99% | 96% |
| 9 | 10% | 79% | 76% |
| 8 | 17% | 36% | 36% |
| 7½ | 1% | 23% | 23% |
| 7 | 21% | 6% | 6% |
| 6½ | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| 6 | 20% | <1% | <1% |
| 5½ | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5 | 15% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 7% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Saints’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs CARweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · NO by 2.5 | 59% | 30% | 8% | 30% | 8% |
| at CHIweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · CHI by 9.5 | 20% | 36% | 18% | 34% | 18% |
| at CINweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 24% | 33% | 18% | 32% | 17% |
| vs GBweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 30% | 15% | 29% | 15% |
| at CARweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 45% | 32% | 12% | 32% | 12% |
| at TBweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 37% | 36% | 12% | 36% | 12% |
| vs ARIweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 63% | 25% | 14% | 24% | 14% |
| at ATLweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 43% | 32% | 12% | 31% | 12% |
| vs TBweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 47% | 31% | 11% | 30% | 11% |
Who should Saints fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Saints’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| KC over ATL (away) | 23% | 19% | 23% | 18% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Saints, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over TBweek 11 | 24% | 18% | 24% | 17% |
| LAC over TBweek 13 | 26% | 20% | 26% | 19% |
| BAL over TBweek 14 | 25% | 19% | 25% | 18% |
| LA over TBweek 17 | 24% | 19% | 23% | 18% |
| MIN over ATLweek 12 | 23% | 19% | 23% | 18% |
| DET over ATLweek 13 | 23% | 19% | 23% | 19% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Saints finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 9%. Decided by head-to-head (6%), division record (4%), record in common games (1%), conference record (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 9%. Decided by head-to-head (6%), division record (4%), record in common games (1%).
New Orleans Saints: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work