Playoff odds › NFC East
New York Giants playoff chances
5–3–1 · 1st in the NFC East · the No. 3 seed if the season ended today · rating −2.4 (22nd of 32)
The New York Giants have a 49% chance to make the playoffs and a 47% chance to win the NFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Giants’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 35% | 22% |
| After week 1 | 37% | 23% |
| After week 2 | 18% | 11% |
| After week 3 | 24% | 14% |
| After week 4 | 33% | 23% |
| After week 5 | 37% | 31% |
| After week 6 | 29% | 25% |
| After week 7 | 41% | 34% |
| After week 8 | 50% | 46% |
| After week 9 | 67% | 64% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 49% | 47% |
Where the Giants could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Giants need to make the playoffs?
How the Giants’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10½ wins or more (19% of the seasons): in the playoffs 99% of the time.
- 9½ wins (21% of the seasons): in 79%. Help that matters most then: SF over DAL (week 10): 86% if so, 68% if not; JAX over DAL (week 16): 85% if so, 70% if not.
- 8½ wins (24% of the seasons): in 42%. Help that matters most then: SF over DAL (week 10): 51% if so, 27% if not; SEA over DAL (week 13): 49% if so, 27% if not.
- 7½ wins (20% of the seasons): in 13%. Help that matters most then: TEN over DAL (week 11): 23% if so, 9% if not; SF over DAL (week 10): 17% if so, 4% if not.
- 6½ wins or fewer (14% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Giants need?
How often the Giants finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12½ | 2% | >99% | >99% |
| 11½ | 5% | >99% | 99% |
| 10½ | 12% | 99% | 92% |
| 9½ | 21% | 79% | 73% |
| 9 | 1% | 58% | 57% |
| 8½ | 24% | 42% | 41% |
| 8 | 1% | 25% | 25% |
| 7½ | 20% | 13% | 13% |
| 6½ | 11% | 1% | 1% |
| 5½ | 3% | <1% | <1% |
The Giants’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs JAXweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 23% | 70% | 43% | 66% | 41% |
| at INDweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 50% | 62% | 37% | 59% | 35% |
| vs SFweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 34% | 67% | 41% | 63% | 39% |
| at SEAweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 26% | 68% | 43% | 64% | 41% |
| vs CLEweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 58% | 59% | 36% | 57% | 34% |
| at DETweek 16 · Mon Dec 28, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 29% | 66% | 43% | 63% | 41% |
| at DALweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 36% | 71% | 38% | 70% | 36% |
| vs PHIweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 64% | 57% | 36% | 54% | 34% |
Who should Giants fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Giants’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| SF over DAL (away) | 54% | 42% | 53% | 38% |
| HOU over CLE (away) | 50% | 48% | 47% | 46% |
| NE over DET (away) | 50% | 49% | 48% | 47% |
| TEN over JAX (home) | 50% | 49% | 48% | 47% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Giants, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| TEN over DALweek 11 | 58% | 46% | 57% | 44% |
| LA over DALweek 15 | 53% | 42% | 52% | 38% |
| SEA over DALweek 13 | 53% | 42% | 52% | 39% |
| JAX over DALweek 16 | 53% | 41% | 51% | 38% |
| PHI over DALweek 12 | 57% | 47% | 56% | 44% |
| CIN over WASweek 11 | 53% | 43% | 51% | 40% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Giants finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 6% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 6%. Decided by head-to-head (5%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 6% of the seasons: won <1%, lost 6%. Decided by head-to-head (6%).
New York Giants: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work