Playoff odds › AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers playoff chances
6–2 · 1st in the AFC North · the No. 4 seed if the season ended today · rating +2.1 (13th of 32)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have an 81% chance to make the playoffs and a 32% chance to win the AFC North, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of CIN in the AFC North (head-to-head); behind JAX in the AFC order (conference record).
How the Steelers’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 34% | 16% |
| After week 1 | 54% | 22% |
| After week 2 | 39% | 14% |
| After week 3 | 40% | 15% |
| After week 4 | 31% | 11% |
| After week 5 | 46% | 18% |
| After week 6 | 55% | 27% |
| After week 7 | 70% | 27% |
| After week 8 | 81% | 35% |
| After week 9 | 81% | 32% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 81% | 32% |
Where the Steelers could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Steelers need to make the playoffs?
How the Steelers’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10½ wins or more (61% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 10 wins (18% of the seasons): in 81%. Help that matters most then: DET over NE (week 10): 86% if so, 75% if not; BUF over NE (week 13): 86% if so, 75% if not.
- 9 wins (12% of the seasons): in 34%. Help that matters most then: LAC over NE (week 12): 43% if so, 28% if not; MIN over NE (week 14): 40% if so, 27% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (7% of the seasons): in 3%.
How many wins do the Steelers need?
How often the Steelers finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 1% | >99% | >99% |
| 14 | 5% | >99% | 94% |
| 13 | 13% | >99% | 75% |
| 12 | 19% | >99% | 48% |
| 11½ | 1% | >99% | 32% |
| 11 | 22% | 99% | 22% |
| 10½ | 1% | 97% | 12% |
| 10 | 18% | 81% | 6% |
| 9 | 12% | 34% | 1% |
| 8 | 5% | 3% | <1% |
| 7 | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Steelers’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at CINweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM · CIN by 3.5 | 38% | 92% | 74% | 62% | 13% |
| at PHIweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 4:25 PM · PIT by 4.5 | 65% | 87% | 70% | 37% | 21% |
| vs DENweek 12 · Fri Nov 27, 3:00 PM · no line yet | 52% | 90% | 72% | 39% | 23% |
| vs HOUweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 8:20 PM · no line yet | 51% | 92% | 71% | 39% | 23% |
| at JAXweek 14 · Mon Dec 14, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 28% | 92% | 78% | 43% | 27% |
| vs BALweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 70% | 88% | 67% | 36% | 20% |
| vs CARweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 67% | 86% | 72% | 36% | 22% |
| at TENweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 68% | 86% | 72% | 36% | 22% |
| at BALweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 60% | 89% | 72% | 37% | 22% |
Who should Steelers fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Steelers’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DET over NE (home) | 82% | 79% | 32% | 31% |
| LAC over BAL (away) | 83% | 80% | 32% | 31% |
| SEA over LV (away) | 82% | 80% | 32% | 32% |
| CLE over HOU (home) | 82% | 81% | 31% | 32% |
| ATL over KC (home) | 82% | 80% | 31% | 32% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Steelers, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| CLE over CINweek 13 | 79% | 82% | 42% | 27% |
| NO over CINweek 12 | 82% | 81% | 42% | 28% |
| BAL over CINweek 17 | 80% | 81% | 42% | 29% |
| WAS over CINweek 11 | 81% | 81% | 40% | 27% |
| IND over CINweek 16 | 81% | 81% | 40% | 28% |
| KC over CINweek 14 | 81% | 81% | 39% | 26% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Steelers finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 11% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 8%. Decided by head-to-head (4%), conference record (2%), division record (2%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (2%), a head-to-head sweep (1%), record in common games (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 13% of the seasons: won 9%, lost 4%. Decided by head-to-head (7%), division record (4%), record in common games (2%), conference record (1%).
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