Playoff odds › NFC West
Seattle Seahawks playoff chances
5–4 · 2nd in the NFC West · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (8th in the NFC) · rating +3.9 (7th of 32)
The Seattle Seahawks have a 51% chance to make the playoffs and an 11% chance to win the NFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of LA in the NFC West (division record); ahead of LA in the NFC order (division tiebreaker (only the best-ranked club of a division takes part)).
How the Seahawks’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 84% | 55% |
| After week 1 | 83% | 56% |
| After week 2 | 83% | 49% |
| After week 3 | 77% | 44% |
| After week 4 | 77% | 36% |
| After week 5 | 71% | 19% |
| After week 6 | 66% | 16% |
| After week 7 | 76% | 31% |
| After week 8 | 50% | 16% |
| After week 9 | 50% | 11% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 51% | 11% |
Where the Seahawks could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Seahawks need to make the playoffs?
How the Seahawks’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 12 wins or more (15% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 11 wins (21% of the seasons): in 94%. No single other game moves that by five points or more.
- 10 wins (24% of the seasons): in 54%. Help that matters most then: SF over LA (week 14): 60% if so, 46% if not; NO over GB (week 13): 62% if so, 49% if not.
- 9 wins (19% of the seasons): in 9%. Help that matters most then: ARI over LA (week 10): 15% if so, 8% if not; SF over LA (week 14): 12% if so, 6% if not.
- 8 wins or fewer (18% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Seahawks need?
How often the Seahawks finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | 4% | >99% | 75% |
| 12 | 12% | >99% | 41% |
| 11 | 21% | 94% | 15% |
| 10½ | 1% | 86% | 8% |
| 10 | 24% | 54% | 3% |
| 9½ | 1% | 31% | 1% |
| 9 | 19% | 9% | <1% |
| 8 | 12% | <1% | <1% |
| 7 | 5% | <1% | <1% |
| 6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Seahawks’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at LVweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · SEA by 6.5 | 72% | 57% | 34% | 14% | 6% |
| at SFweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 46% | 66% | 36% | 22% | 1% |
| vs DALweek 13 · Mon Dec 7, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 66% | 60% | 33% | 14% | 6% |
| vs NYGweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 74% | 57% | 31% | 13% | 6% |
| at PHIweek 15 · Sat Dec 19, 5:00 PM · no line yet | 73% | 57% | 33% | 13% | 6% |
| vs LAweek 16 · Fri Dec 25, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 53% | 66% | 32% | 17% | 4% |
| at CARweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 63% | 58% | 36% | 13% | 7% |
| at LAweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 43% | 68% | 38% | 18% | 6% |
Who should Seahawks fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Seahawks’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| DAL over SF (home) | 51% | 50% | 17% | 8% |
| ARI over LA (home) | 56% | 49% | 13% | 11% |
| NE over DET (away) | 52% | 50% | 11% | 11% |
| MIN over GB (away) | 51% | 50% | 12% | 11% |
| NO over CAR (home) | 51% | 50% | 11% | 11% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Seahawks, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| LA over SFweek 14 | 47% | 54% | 16% | 7% |
| ARI over SFweek 18 | 51% | 50% | 17% | 9% |
| NYG over SFweek 13 | 50% | 50% | 17% | 9% |
| MIN over SFweek 11 | 49% | 51% | 16% | 9% |
| PHI over SFweek 17 | 51% | 50% | 17% | 10% |
| KC over SFweek 16 | 51% | 50% | 14% | 8% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Seahawks finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 18% of the seasons: won 6%, lost 12%. Decided by conference record (6%), a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (4%), head-to-head (3%), record in common games (2%), division record (2%), strength of victory (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 8% of the seasons: won 4%, lost 4%. Decided by division record (4%), head-to-head (2%), record in common games (1%), strength of victory (1%), conference record (1%).
Seattle Seahawks: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work