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San Francisco 49ers playoff chances

7–1 · 1st in the NFC West · the No. 1 seed if the season ended today · rating +4.2 (5th of 32)

The San Francisco 49ers have a 94% chance to make the playoffs and an 80% chance to win the NFC West, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.

Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET

Make the playoffs94%no change in week 10
Win the division80%no change in week 10
No. 1 seed (the bye)42%+1 in week 10
Reach the Super Bowl22%
Win the Super Bowl10%no change in week 10
Average final wins12.610 to 15 wins: 8 in 10 seasons

How the 49ers’ playoff chances have changed

Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.

The numbers
WhenMake the
playoffs		Win the
division
Before the season42%13%
After week 163%26%
After week 273%32%
After week 375%39%
After week 485%48%
After week 594%69%
After week 696%79%
After week 789%61%
After week 889%71%
After week 994%79%
Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 1294%80%

Where the 49ers could finish

The chance of each playoff seed.

What do the 49ers need to make the playoffs?

How the 49ers’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.

  • 11 wins or more (89% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
  • 10 wins (7% of the seasons): in 69%. Help that matters most then: NO over GB (week 13): 77% if so, 65% if not; ARI over LA (week 10): 79% if so, 67% if not.
  • 8 wins or fewer (1% of the seasons): in <1%.

How many wins do the 49ers need?

How often the 49ers finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.

Final
wins		Chance of
that record		Make playoffs
with it		Win division
with it
162%>99%>99%
159%>99%>99%
1419%>99%>99%
13½1%>99%>99%
1323%>99%96%
12½1%>99%92%
1220%>99%82%
11½1%>99%69%
1113%97%50%
107%69%17%
93%13%2%
81%<1%<1%

The 49ers’ remaining schedule

The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.

GameWin
chance		Make playoffsWin division
winlosswinloss
at DALweek 10 · Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM · SF by 3.562%98%89%86%69%
vs MINweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 8:20 PM · SF by 3.562%98%88%85%71%
vs SEAweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 4:25 PM · no line yet54%98%90%93%65%
at NYGweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet66%97%90%85%70%
vs LAweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 4:25 PM · no line yet53%98%91%92%68%
at LACweek 15 · Thu Dec 17, 8:15 PM · no line yet72%96%91%84%71%
at KCweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 4:25 PM · no line yet47%97%93%87%74%
vs PHIweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 8:20 PM · no line yet81%96%89%82%69%
at ARIweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet67%97%90%85%68%

Who should 49ers fans root for in week 10?

Other teams’ games this week that move the 49ers’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.

Root forMake playoffsWin division
if soif notif soif not
LV over SEA (home)95%94%84%78%
ARI over LA (home)95%94%84%78%

Later games to watch

Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the 49ers, as things stand now.

Root forMake playoffsWin division
if soif notif soif not
DAL over SEAweek 1395%94%84%77%
NYG over SEAweek 1495%94%84%78%
GB over LAweek 1294%94%83%78%
PHI over SEAweek 1595%94%83%78%
KC over LAweek 1395%94%83%78%
CAR over SEAweek 1795%94%83%78%

How often a tiebreaker decides

The share of the simulated seasons in which the 49ers finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).

  • A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 5% of the seasons: won 3%, lost 2%. Decided by a division tiebreaker (only one team per division takes part) (1%), conference record (1%), head-to-head (1%), division record (1%), record in common games (1%).
  • The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 12% of the seasons: won 7%, lost 5%. Decided by division record (6%), head-to-head (3%), record in common games (2%), conference record (1%), strength of victory (1%).

San Francisco 49ers: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work