Playoff odds › NFC South
Tampa Bay Buccaneers playoff chances
3–6 · 3rd in the NFC South · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (13th in the NFC) · rating +0.6 (14th of 32)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 40% chance to make the playoffs and a 39% chance to win the NFC South, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
Tiebreakers in today’s standings: ahead of ATL in the NFC South (head-to-head); ahead of ARI in the NFC order (conference record).
How the Buccaneers’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 39% | 27% |
| After week 1 | 37% | 31% |
| After week 2 | 25% | 19% |
| After week 3 | 24% | 20% |
| After week 4 | 12% | 10% |
| After week 5 | 17% | 14% |
| After week 6 | 9% | 7% |
| After week 7 | 24% | 22% |
| After week 8 | 41% | 39% |
| After week 9 | 39% | 39% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 40% | 39% |
Where the Buccaneers could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Buccaneers need to make the playoffs?
How the Buccaneers’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10 wins or more (9% of the seasons): in the playoffs >99% of the time.
- 9 wins (16% of the seasons): in 89%. Help that matters most then: BAL over CAR (week 11): 92% if so, 85% if not; CIN over CAR (week 15): 91% if so, 84% if not.
- 8 wins (22% of the seasons): in 55%. Help that matters most then: CHI over NO (week 11): 59% if so, 43% if not; CIN over NO (week 12): 59% if so, 45% if not.
- 7 wins (22% of the seasons): in 17%. Help that matters most then: CHI over NO (week 11): 19% if so, 9% if not; KC over ATL (week 10): 20% if so, 11% if not.
- 6½ wins or fewer (29% of the seasons): in 1%.
How many wins do the Buccaneers need?
How often the Buccaneers finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 2% | >99% | >99% |
| 10 | 7% | >99% | 99% |
| 9 | 16% | 89% | 87% |
| 8½ | 1% | 67% | 66% |
| 8 | 22% | 55% | 55% |
| 7½ | 1% | 25% | 25% |
| 7 | 22% | 17% | 17% |
| 6½ | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| 6 | 16% | 1% | 1% |
| 5 | 9% | <1% | <1% |
| 4 | 3% | <1% | <1% |
| 3 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
The Buccaneers’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| at DETweek 11 · Sun Nov 22, 1:00 PM · DET by 3.5 | 38% | 54% | 31% | 53% | 31% |
| vs CARweek 12 · Mon Nov 30, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 64% | 52% | 18% | 51% | 18% |
| vs LACweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 71% | 45% | 26% | 45% | 26% |
| at BALweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 54% | 48% | 29% | 47% | 29% |
| vs NOweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 63% | 51% | 20% | 50% | 20% |
| at ATLweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 52% | 53% | 25% | 52% | 25% |
| vs LAweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 42% | 49% | 33% | 48% | 33% |
| at NOweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 53% | 52% | 26% | 51% | 25% |
Who should Buccaneers fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Buccaneers’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| KC over ATL (away) | 43% | 36% | 42% | 35% |
| ARI over LA (home) | 41% | 40% | 40% | 39% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Buccaneers, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| CHI over NOweek 11 | 42% | 33% | 41% | 32% |
| CIN over NOweek 12 | 42% | 34% | 41% | 33% |
| GB over NOweek 13 | 43% | 36% | 43% | 35% |
| MIN over ATLweek 12 | 43% | 36% | 42% | 36% |
| BAL over CARweek 11 | 43% | 37% | 43% | 37% |
| DET over ATLweek 13 | 42% | 36% | 42% | 36% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Buccaneers finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 15% of the seasons: won 12%, lost 3%. Decided by head-to-head (8%), division record (5%), record in common games (1%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 15% of the seasons: won 12%, lost 3%. Decided by head-to-head (8%), division record (5%), record in common games (1%).
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