Playoff odds › NFC East
Washington Commanders playoff chances
3–5–1 · 3rd in the NFC East · out of the playoffs if the season ended today (11th in the NFC) · rating −1.4 (18th of 32)
The Washington Commanders have an 18% chance to make the playoffs and a 17% chance to win the NFC East, from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the 2026 season.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
How the Commanders’ playoff chances have changed
Each point is our forecast at the time, kept in the forecast ledger. Weeks 1–9 were run afterwards with only what was known then.
The numbers
| When | Make the playoffs | Win the division |
|---|---|---|
| Before the season | 28% | 17% |
| After week 1 | 23% | 12% |
| After week 2 | 14% | 7% |
| After week 3 | 23% | 11% |
| After week 4 | 10% | 5% |
| After week 5 | 12% | 9% |
| After week 6 | 15% | 13% |
| After week 7 | 9% | 7% |
| After week 8 | 20% | 18% |
| After week 9 | 9% | 8% |
| Week 10, after the games through Thu Nov 12 | 18% | 17% |
Where the Commanders could finish
The chance of each playoff seed.
What do the Commanders need to make the playoffs?
How the Commanders’ final record decides it in the simulations, and, for the records in between, the other games that matter most then: each played with each result forced, and only differences of at least five points shown. A ½ is a tie.
- 10½ wins or more (3% of the seasons): in the playoffs 98% of the time.
- 9½ wins (8% of the seasons): in 77%. Help that matters most then: JAX over NYG (week 11): 82% if so, 61% if not; IND over NYG (week 12): 85% if so, 69% if not.
- 8½ wins (16% of the seasons): in 37%. Help that matters most then: JAX over NYG (week 11): 43% if so, 21% if not; SF over NYG (week 13): 44% if so, 24% if not.
- 7½ wins (22% of the seasons): in 10%. Help that matters most then: CLE over NYG (week 15): 16% if so, 6% if not; IND over NYG (week 12): 15% if so, 5% if not.
- 7 wins or fewer (50% of the seasons): in <1%.
How many wins do the Commanders need?
How often the Commanders finished with each number of wins in the simulations, and its playoff and division chances when it did. Totals with under a 0.5% chance are left out; ½ is a tie.
| Final wins | Chance of that record | Make playoffs with it | Win division with it |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10½ | 3% | 98% | 89% |
| 9½ | 8% | 77% | 70% |
| 8½ | 16% | 37% | 37% |
| 8 | 1% | 14% | 14% |
| 7½ | 22% | 10% | 10% |
| 7 | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6½ | 22% | 1% | 1% |
| 6 | 1% | <1% | <1% |
| 5½ | 16% | <1% | <1% |
| 4½ | 8% | <1% | <1% |
| 3½ | 2% | <1% | <1% |
The Commanders’ remaining schedule
The chances to make the playoffs and to win the division after a win and after a loss. Kickoff times are Eastern.
| Game | Win chance | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| win | loss | win | loss | ||
| vs CINweek 11 · Mon Nov 23, 8:15 PM · no line yet | 35% | 30% | 11% | 28% | 11% |
| at ARIweek 12 · Sun Nov 29, 4:25 PM · no line yet | 57% | 24% | 8% | 23% | 8% |
| at TENweek 13 · Sun Dec 6, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 59% | 24% | 9% | 22% | 9% |
| vs HOUweek 14 · Sun Dec 13, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 40% | 28% | 11% | 26% | 11% |
| vs ATLweek 15 · Sun Dec 20, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 56% | 23% | 9% | 22% | 9% |
| at MINweek 16 · Sun Dec 27, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 39% | 27% | 11% | 25% | 11% |
| at JAXweek 17 · Sun Jan 3, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 20% | 31% | 14% | 29% | 13% |
| vs DALweek 18 · Sun Jan 10, 1:00 PM · no line yet | 49% | 27% | 7% | 26% | 7% |
Who should Commanders fans root for in week 10?
Other teams’ games this week that move the Commanders’ playoff or division chances by at least a point (and by more than the simulation error), biggest first.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| SF over DAL (away) | 20% | 13% | 20% | 12% |
Later games to watch
Other teams’ games after this week with the biggest effect on the Commanders, as things stand now.
| Root for | Make playoffs | Win division | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| if so | if not | if so | if not | |
| JAX over NYGweek 11 | 20% | 12% | 19% | 11% |
| IND over NYGweek 12 | 21% | 14% | 21% | 13% |
| SEA over NYGweek 14 | 19% | 13% | 19% | 11% |
| SF over NYGweek 13 | 20% | 13% | 19% | 12% |
| CLE over NYGweek 15 | 22% | 15% | 21% | 14% |
| SEA over DALweek 13 | 20% | 14% | 19% | 12% |
How often a tiebreaker decides
The share of the simulated seasons in which the Commanders finished level on record with a team on the other side of the line, so the NFL’s tiebreakers decided it, and the step that separated them (percentages of all seasons).
- A playoff spot: decided by a tiebreaker in 6% of the seasons: won 5%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (5%).
- The division title: decided by a tiebreaker in 6% of the seasons: won 6%, lost <1%. Decided by head-to-head (6%).
Washington Commanders: team stats · All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · How the odds work