What this is
Red Zone Math is an independent, non-commercial NFL analytics site. Everything here comes from our own models built on public play-by-play data: a win-probability model that values every snap, and a 4th-down model that weighs going for it, kicking and punting in every situation, with an honest measure of how sure it is.
Use it to see which quarterbacks really move the needle, how every game swung, and which coaches leave wins on the table on 4th down. Or ask the calculator about a situation of your own.
7,409games, every one with a win-probability chart
33,0034th-down calls graded against the model
28seasons of play-by-play, since 1999
420quarterbacks on the leaderboards
Week 9 at a glance
Final scores. Tap a game for its win-probability chart, biggest swings and every 4th down.
4th-down calls of the week
The coach’s call against our model’s.
Cost the most
Kellen Moore punted on 4th & 3 at NO 37
Q4 4:23, down 4. Model: Go for it (Confident), 5.9 WP points lost
Cost the mostKevin O'Connell kicked a field goal on 4th & 1 at BUF 25
Q2 4:06, down 3. Model: Go for it (Confident), 4.2 WP points lost
Cost the mostBrian Schottenheimer punted on 4th & 1 at DAL 39
Q4 7:50, up 3. Model: Go for it (Confident), 3.7 WP points lost
Bold and rightTodd Monken went for it on 4th & goal at NO 1
Q2 1:42, tied. Model: Go for it (Confident), worth 6.8 WP points over the next-best option
Bold and rightTodd Monken went for it on 4th & 2 at NO 42
Q4 10:39, tied. Model: Go for it (Confident), worth 6.0 WP points over the next-best option
Top quarterbacks, 2026
Qualified QBs by EPA per dropback.
| # | QB | Team | EPA/db | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | +0.341 | 967 | 6 |
| 2 | Brock Purdy | SF | +0.322 | 1,980 | 17 |
| 3 | Josh Allen | BUF | +0.299 | 2,027 | 12 |
| 4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | +0.281 | 2,386 | 23 |
| 5 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | +0.262 | 1,932 | 18 |
Explore
QuarterbacksBox-score stats, EPA and WPA per dropback, CPOE, ANY/ARunning backsEPA per carry, success rate, workloadReceiversTarget share, WOPR, EPA per target, catch rate over expectedDefendersSacks, pressures, tackles for loss, takeawaysTeamsOffence and defence per play, adjusted for opponentsCoachesEvery 4th-down call against our model, situation by situationGamesEvery game since 1999: win-probability chart, swings, 4th downs4th-down calculatorType in a situation, get the model's call and how sure it is