Games
Every game since 1999: our model’s win-probability chart, the biggest swings and the top players by WPA. Since 2018, every 4th-down call is graded too. Pick a game.
Leaderboard
Click a game to open it. Winner’s lowest WP: how far behind the winner fell, by our model (low = a comeback). 4th-down columns start in 2018. * The source play-by-play failed our data-quality checks (20 games since 1999); its score may be wrong and the game has no charts.
How these are computed
- Win probability is our registered 4th-down model’s (C2 with its floors and overtime model), point estimate. For 1999–2025 these are in-sample values.
- 4th-down grading uses the full decision layer (101 bootstrap replicates); WP lost is the model’s best option minus the coach’s choice.