4th-down calculator
Type in a 4th down and get our model’s call, how sure it is, and the win probability of going for it, kicking a field goal and punting.
The result appears here.
How this works
- The model is the registered 4th-down decision layer (WP C2 with its floors and overtime model, FG v2.3 with in-season kicker ratings, the punt and go models) with all of its 101 bootstrap replicates, the same model that grades the coaches.
- The call is the option with the best average win probability over the replicates. Its tier is the share of replicates in which it is the best option: Confident at 83% or more, Lean at 67% to 83%, else Toss-up.
- Filled in for you from the schedule and our data: the line and total, the team’s kicker and punter, its QB’s designed-run share, and the venue. Weather comes from the schedule when it has it, else the season’s outdoor medians; type it in to use the real conditions.
- You see the point estimate first (under a second), then the full answer with the tier (usually 2 to 5 seconds).
- Checked against 40 graded 2026 decisions: with the same inputs, the same call, tier and share of replicates every time, and the same win probabilities up to rounding.