Kickers
Field-goal and extra-point points over expected: what each kicker made, against what the season’s average kicker would make from the same spots, in the same weather.
Difficulty vs. accuracy
Each dot is a qualified kicker. Left = harder kicks (a lower expected make rate); up = made more than expected. Dashed lines: the league.
Leaderboard
Click a column to sort. Ranks (FG points over expected) are among qualified kickers: at least one FG attempt per team game.
How these are computed
- Expected: our frozen field-goal model (v2.3) with the kicker set to average. It knows the distance, wind, temperature, rain or snow, roof, surface, altitude, extra point or field goal, and the league’s kicking level on that date, and it includes the chance of a block. Blocked kicks count as misses.
- Each season is calibrated so its league-average kicker is exactly 0 (a small shift on the log-odds scale, which keeps the distance and weather effects). Without it, 1999–2002 would look too harsh: the model sees every kicker as a newcomer when the data begin.
- FG points over expected = 3 × (field goals made − expected). XP points over expected = extra points made − expected. ± is the standard deviation of the total if the kicker were exactly average: about ±6 points over a full season.
- Most of one season’s number is luck: a kicker’s points over expected per attempt correlates only 0.10 with his next season’s (20+ attempts). Several seasons say much more than one.
- Field goals only: the distance is the kick’s length (line of scrimmage + 17 yards). Fakes are not kicks.
- Regular season and postseason are separate; the extra points of the 2015 rule change (the 33-yard try) are in the model.
- Stabilised (the Numbers switch): each rate pulled toward the season’s average by an amount set by how much one season can tell apart (fitted on 1999–2017 by splitting seasons in half; on 2018–2025 it predicted the other half of a season better than the raw rate). The range after each number is a 90% interval; after the rank, the range of ranks it could plausibly hold.