Games that matter: week 10

How much each of this week’s games moves the playoff race, and who has the most riding on it. Playoff spots at stake adds up how much the teams’ playoff chances change between the game’s two possible results: 0.40 means the result moves four-tenths of a playoff spot from some teams to others. Division titles and byes are counted the same way.

Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET

Already played this week: WAS 24 at NYG 21.

1.NE at DET
Sun Nov 15, 9:30 AM · DET by 2.5 · DET wins 59% of the simulations

0.43 playoff spots at stake0.28 division titles · 0.16 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
NE
wins DET
wins NE
wins DET
wins
NE 72% 46% 12% 4%
DET 71% 86% 23% 42%
CHI 87% 84% 40% 31%
BUF 99% 99% 88% 96%
CLE 23% 28% 4% 4%
HOU 36% 41% 8% 8%
2.MIN at GB
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · GB by 3 · GB wins 61% of the simulations

0.38 playoff spots at stake0.25 division titles · 0.14 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
MIN
wins GB
wins MIN
wins GB
wins
GB 41% 75% 3% 18%
MIN 87% 58% 32% 10%
CHI 86% 85% 32% 36%
DET 80% 79% 33% 36%
SEA 51% 50% 12% 11%
NE 56% 57% 7% 7%
3.HOU at CLE
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · HOU by 4.5 · HOU wins 65% of the simulations

0.38 playoff spots at stake0.14 division titles · 0.02 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
HOU
wins CLE
wins HOU
wins CLE
wins
HOU 51% 17% 10% 3%
CLE 15% 47% 2% 7%
JAX 98% 99% 90% 97%
CIN 94% 94% 65% 61%
NYG 50% 48% 47% 46%
PIT 81% 82% 32% 31%
4.SEA at LV
Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · SEA by 6.5 · SEA wins 72% of the simulations

0.35 playoff spots at stake0.12 division titles · 0.03 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
SEA
wins LV
wins SEA
wins LV
wins
SEA 57% 34% 14% 6%
LV 6% 18% 1% 3%
LA 48% 56% 9% 10%
SF 94% 95% 78% 84%
GB 61% 64% 12% 12%
MIN 69% 72% 19% 19%
5.SF at DAL
Sun Nov 15, 4:25 PM · SF by 3.5 · SF wins 62% of the simulations

0.30 playoff spots at stake0.41 division titles · 0.27 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
SF
wins DAL
wins SF
wins DAL
wins
DAL 28% 52% 27% 49%
SF 98% 89% 86% 69%
NYG 54% 42% 53% 38%
SEA 50% 51% 8% 17%
WAS 20% 13% 20% 12%
LA 50% 50% 6% 13%
6.LA at ARI
Sun Nov 15, 4:05 PM · LA by 9.5 · LA wins 80% of the simulations

0.29 playoff spots at stake0.12 division titles · 0.04 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
LA
wins ARI
wins LA
wins ARI
wins
LA 56% 29% 11% 3%
SEA 49% 56% 11% 13%
SF 94% 95% 78% 84%
GB 61% 66% 12% 13%
MIN 69% 72% 19% 19%
DET 79% 82% 35% 34%
7.CAR at NO
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · NO by 2.5 · NO wins 59% of the simulations

0.28 playoff spots at stake0.27 division titles · 0.01 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
CAR
wins NO
wins CAR
wins NO
wins
CAR 38% 13% 37% 12%
NO 8% 30% 8% 30%
ATL 17% 19% 16% 18%
SEA 50% 51% 11% 11%
GB 63% 62% 12% 12%
8.KC at ATL
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · KC by 3 · KC wins 61% of the simulations

0.28 playoff spots at stake0.35 division titles · 0.08 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
KC
wins ATL
wins KC
wins ATL
wins
KC 95% 85% 45% 27%
DEN 94% 95% 54% 71%
ATL 12% 28% 12% 26%
TB 43% 36% 42% 35%
NO 23% 19% 23% 18%
NE 55% 59% 7% 7%
9.PIT at CIN
Sun Nov 15, 8:20 PM · CIN by 3.5 · CIN wins 62% of the simulations

0.20 playoff spots at stake0.52 division titles · 0.15 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
PIT
wins CIN
wins PIT
wins CIN
wins
CIN 88% 98% 34% 83%
PIT 92% 74% 62% 13%
HOU 37% 41% 8% 8%
NE 55% 57% 7% 7%
KC 91% 91% 39% 38%
DEN 94% 95% 59% 61%
10.LAC at BAL
Mon Nov 16, 8:15 PM · BAL by 4.5 · BAL wins 66% of the simulations

0.10 playoff spots at stake0.03 division titles · 0.01 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
LAC
wins BAL
wins LAC
wins BAL
wins
BAL 4% 13% <1% 1%
PIT 83% 80% 32% 31%
HOU 41% 38% 8% 8%
CLE 27% 26% 4% 4%
11.JAX at TEN
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · JAX by 10.5 · JAX wins 83% of the simulations

0.07 playoff spots at stake0.14 division titles · 0.17 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
JAX
wins TEN
wins JAX
wins TEN
wins
JAX 99% 94% 94% 82%
HOU 39% 42% 6% 17%
NYG 49% 50% 47% 48%
12.BUF at NYJ
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · BUF by 8.5 · BUF wins 77% of the simulations

0.05 playoff spots at stake0.12 division titles · 0.26 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
BUF
wins NYJ
wins BUF
wins NYJ
wins
BUF >99% 97% 95% 85%
NE 57% 57% 5% 15%
NYJ <1% 2% <1% <1%
KC 91% 92% 38% 39%
DEN 95% 95% 60% 59%
13.MIA at IND
Sun Nov 15, 1:00 PM · IND by 3.5 · IND wins 62% of the simulations

0.05 playoff spots at stake0.03 division titles · 0.01 byes

Team Make playoffs Win division
MIA
wins IND
wins MIA
wins IND
wins
CLE 27% 26% 4% 4%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
NE	72%	46%	12%	4%
DET	71%	86%	23%	42%
CHI	87%	84%	40%	31%
BUF	99%	99%	88%	96%
CLE	23%	28%	4%	4%
HOU	36%	41%	8%	8%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
GB	41%	75%	3%	18%
MIN	87%	58%	32%	10%
CHI	86%	85%	32%	36%
DET	80%	79%	33%	36%
SEA	51%	50%	12%	11%
NE	56%	57%	7%	7%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
HOU	51%	17%	10%	3%
CLE	15%	47%	2%	7%
JAX	98%	99%	90%	97%
CIN	94%	94%	65%	61%
NYG	50%	48%	47%	46%
PIT	81%	82%	32%	31%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
SEA	57%	34%	14%	6%
LV	6%	18%	1%	3%
LA	48%	56%	9%	10%
SF	94%	95%	78%	84%
GB	61%	64%	12%	12%
MIN	69%	72%	19%	19%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
DAL	28%	52%	27%	49%
SF	98%	89%	86%	69%
NYG	54%	42%	53%	38%
SEA	50%	51%	8%	17%
WAS	20%	13%	20%	12%
LA	50%	50%	6%	13%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
LA	56%	29%	11%	3%
SEA	49%	56%	11%	13%
SF	94%	95%	78%	84%
GB	61%	66%	12%	13%
MIN	69%	72%	19%	19%
DET	79%	82%	35%	34%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
CAR	38%	13%	37%	12%
NO	8%	30%	8%	30%
ATL	17%	19%	16%	18%
SEA	50%	51%	11%	11%
GB	63%	62%	12%	12%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
KC	95%	85%	45%	27%
DEN	94%	95%	54%	71%
ATL	12%	28%	12%	26%
TB	43%	36%	42%	35%
NO	23%	19%	23%	18%
NE	55%	59%	7%	7%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
CIN	88%	98%	34%	83%
PIT	92%	74%	62%	13%
HOU	37%	41%	8%	8%
NE	55%	57%	7%	7%
KC	91%	91%	39%	38%
DEN	94%	95%	59%	61%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
BAL	4%	13%	<1%	1%
PIT	83%	80%	32%	31%
HOU	41%	38%	8%	8%
CLE	27%	26%	4%	4%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
JAX	99%	94%	94%	82%
HOU	39%	42%	6%	17%
NYG	49%	50%	47%	48%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
BUF	>99%	97%	95%	85%
NE	57%	57%	5%	15%
NYJ	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%
KC	91%	92%	38%	39%
DEN	95%	95%	60%	59%

Team	Make playoffs	Win division
CLE	27%	26%	4%	4%

The biggest games after this week

Playoff spots at stake as things stand; these change as the weeks go by. The teams listed have the biggest swings, in percentage points.

Game	Spots at stake	Most at stake (swing)
NYG at SEAweek 14	0.47	SEA +26, NYG +25, DAL +13, WAS +7
DAL at SEAweek 13	0.45	SEA +27, DAL +23, NYG +11, WAS +6
MIN at NEweek 14	0.43	NE +25, MIN +18, CLE +5, HOU +5
DAL at LAweek 15	0.41	LA +23, DAL +23, NYG +11, WAS +6
CLE at NYGweek 15	0.41	NYG +24, CLE +17, DAL +13, WAS +7
TB at DETweek 11	0.39	TB +22, DET +19, CAR +7, NO +6
GB at NOweek 13	0.38	GB +24, NO +15, TB +7, SEA +5
HOU at WASweek 14	0.37	HOU +20, WAS +17, NYG +8, DAL +6
GB at LAweek 12	0.37	LA +33, GB +31
ATL at MINweek 12	0.36	MIN +22, ATL +16, TB +6, NO +4

How to read this

“Playoffs if … wins” is the team’s chance to make the playoffs when the game is played with that result and everything else is simulated as usual: 20,000 seasons each way, with the same random draws, so the difference between the two columns is the game’s own effect, measured precisely. Teams are listed only when the swing is at least a point and at least twice its simulation error. Picking the game in the scenario tool gives the same numbers.
A game between two other teams can matter more to a team than some of its own games: a rival’s loss frees a spot.
Ties (about one game in 300) are left out of the two columns.

All teams’ playoff odds · Games that matter · Scenario tool · How the odds work

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	NE wins	DET wins	NE wins	DET wins
NE	72%	46%	12%	4%
DET	71%	86%	23%	42%
CHI	87%	84%	40%	31%
BUF	99%	99%	88%	96%
CLE	23%	28%	4%	4%
HOU	36%	41%	8%	8%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	MIN wins	GB wins	MIN wins	GB wins
GB	41%	75%	3%	18%
MIN	87%	58%	32%	10%
CHI	86%	85%	32%	36%
DET	80%	79%	33%	36%
SEA	51%	50%	12%	11%
NE	56%	57%	7%	7%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	HOU wins	CLE wins	HOU wins	CLE wins
HOU	51%	17%	10%	3%
CLE	15%	47%	2%	7%
JAX	98%	99%	90%	97%
CIN	94%	94%	65%	61%
NYG	50%	48%	47%	46%
PIT	81%	82%	32%	31%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	SEA wins	LV wins	SEA wins	LV wins
SEA	57%	34%	14%	6%
LV	6%	18%	1%	3%
LA	48%	56%	9%	10%
SF	94%	95%	78%	84%
GB	61%	64%	12%	12%
MIN	69%	72%	19%	19%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	SF wins	DAL wins	SF wins	DAL wins
DAL	28%	52%	27%	49%
SF	98%	89%	86%	69%
NYG	54%	42%	53%	38%
SEA	50%	51%	8%	17%
WAS	20%	13%	20%	12%
LA	50%	50%	6%	13%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	LA wins	ARI wins	LA wins	ARI wins
LA	56%	29%	11%	3%
SEA	49%	56%	11%	13%
SF	94%	95%	78%	84%
GB	61%	66%	12%	13%
MIN	69%	72%	19%	19%
DET	79%	82%	35%	34%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	CAR wins	NO wins	CAR wins	NO wins
CAR	38%	13%	37%	12%
NO	8%	30%	8%	30%
ATL	17%	19%	16%	18%
SEA	50%	51%	11%	11%
GB	63%	62%	12%	12%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	KC wins	ATL wins	KC wins	ATL wins
KC	95%	85%	45%	27%
DEN	94%	95%	54%	71%
ATL	12%	28%	12%	26%
TB	43%	36%	42%	35%
NO	23%	19%	23%	18%
NE	55%	59%	7%	7%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	PIT wins	CIN wins	PIT wins	CIN wins
CIN	88%	98%	34%	83%
PIT	92%	74%	62%	13%
HOU	37%	41%	8%	8%
NE	55%	57%	7%	7%
KC	91%	91%	39%	38%
DEN	94%	95%	59%	61%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	LAC wins	BAL wins	LAC wins	BAL wins
BAL	4%	13%	<1%	1%
PIT	83%	80%	32%	31%
HOU	41%	38%	8%	8%
CLE	27%	26%	4%	4%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	JAX wins	TEN wins	JAX wins	TEN wins
JAX	99%	94%	94%	82%
HOU	39%	42%	6%	17%
NYG	49%	50%	47%	48%

Team	Make playoffs		Win division
Team	BUF wins	NYJ wins	BUF wins	NYJ wins
BUF	>99%	97%	95%	85%
NE	57%	57%	5%	15%
NYJ	<1%	2%	<1%	<1%
KC	91%	92%	38%	39%
DEN	95%	95%	60%	59%

Games that matter: week 10

1.NE at DET

2.MIN at GB

3.HOU at CLE

4.SEA at LV

5.SF at DAL

6.LA at ARI

7.CAR at NO

8.KC at ATL

9.PIT at CIN

10.LAC at BAL

11.JAX at TEN

12.BUF at NYJ

13.MIA at IND

The biggest games after this week

How to read this