NFL playoff odds 2026
Every team’s chances from 100,000 simulations of the rest of the season, with every NFL tiebreaker. Updated after each game day, once the final scores are in.
Week 10: 1 of 14 games played (every game through Thu Nov 12) · updated Fri Nov 13, 10:27 AM ET
AFC
| Seed chances 1–7 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF Bills | 7–1 | +5.5 | 1 | 99% | 0 | 93% | 40% | 22% | 12% | 13.2 | seed 1 40%, seed 2 21%, seed 3 18%, seed 4 14%, seed 5 2%, seed 6 2%, seed 7 2%, out 1% |
| JAX Jaguars | 6–2 | +7.4 | 3 | 98% | 0 | 92% | 18% | 26% | 15% | 12.6 | seed 1 18%, seed 2 28%, seed 3 24%, seed 4 23%, seed 5 1%, seed 6 2%, seed 7 2%, out 2% |
| DEN Broncos | 7–2 | +3.0 | 2 | 94% | 0 | 60% | 18% | 12% | 6% | 12.2 | seed 1 18%, seed 2 15%, seed 3 15%, seed 4 13%, seed 5 18%, seed 6 10%, seed 7 6%, out 6% |
| CIN Bengals | 6–2 | +4.8 | 6 | 94% | 0 | 64% | 12% | 15% | 8% | 12.2 | seed 1 12%, seed 2 18%, seed 3 19%, seed 4 16%, seed 5 13%, seed 6 11%, seed 7 6%, out 6% |
| KC Chiefs | 6–2 | +3.5 | 5 | 91% | 0 | 38% | 8% | 10% | 5% | 11.3 | seed 1 8%, seed 2 9%, seed 3 10%, seed 4 11%, seed 5 27%, seed 6 16%, seed 7 10%, out 9% |
| PIT Steelers | 6–2 | +2.1 | 4 | 81% | 0 | 32% | 4% | 7% | 3% | 11.0 | seed 1 4%, seed 2 8%, seed 3 10%, seed 4 10%, seed 5 18%, seed 6 18%, seed 7 13%, out 19% |
| NE Patriots | 5–4 | +0.5 | 7 | 57% | 0 | 7% | <1% | 3% | 2% | 9.2 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 1%, seed 3 2%, seed 4 4%, seed 5 11%, seed 6 17%, seed 7 21%, out 43% |
| HOU Texans | 3–5 | +3.3 | – | 39% | −1 | 8% | <1% | 4% | 2% | 8.7 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 2%, seed 4 6%, seed 5 4%, seed 6 11%, seed 7 16%, out 61% |
| CLE Browns | 5–4 | −3.3 | – | 26% | 0 | 4% | <1% | 1% | <1% | 8.4 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 1%, seed 4 3%, seed 5 2%, seed 6 7%, seed 7 13%, out 74% |
| BAL Ravens | 4–5 | −2.5 | – | 10% | 0 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7.3 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 1%, seed 5 1%, seed 6 3%, seed 7 5%, out 90% |
| LV Raiders | 4–5 | −3.8 | – | 9% | 0 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 7.2 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 1%, seed 5 1%, seed 6 2%, seed 7 5%, out 91% |
| IND Colts | 2–7 | −3.9 | – | 1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 5.3 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 99% |
| NYJ Jets | 2–7 | −5.0 | – | <1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4.9 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out over 99% |
| TEN Titans | 1–7 | −5.4 | – | <1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3.6 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out over 99% |
| MIA Dolphins | 1–7 | −5.6 | – | <1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3.6 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out over 99% |
| LAC Chargers | 0–8 | −4.5 | – | <1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 3.3 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out over 99% |
NFC
| Seed chances 1–7 | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF 49ers | 7–1 | +4.2 | 1 | 94% | 0 | 80% | 42% | 22% | 10% | 12.6 | seed 1 42%, seed 2 35%, seed 3 3%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 5%, seed 6 5%, seed 7 5%, out 6% |
| CHI Bears | 7–2 | +4.0 | 2 | 85% | 0 | 34% | 20% | 16% | 7% | 11.6 | seed 1 20%, seed 2 14%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 22%, seed 6 17%, seed 7 13%, out 15% |
| DET Lions | 6–2 | +3.0 | 5 | 80% | 0 | 35% | 19% | 13% | 6% | 11.2 | seed 1 19%, seed 2 15%, seed 3 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 18%, seed 6 15%, seed 7 12%, out 20% |
| MIN Vikings | 6–2 | +0.3 | 6 | 70% | 0 | 19% | 10% | 7% | 3% | 10.6 | seed 1 10%, seed 2 8%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 18%, seed 6 17%, seed 7 15%, out 30% |
| GB Packers | 6–3 | +2.4 | 7 | 62% | 0 | 12% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 10.3 | seed 1 5%, seed 2 7%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 15%, seed 6 17%, seed 7 17%, out 38% |
| SEA Seahawks | 5–4 | +3.9 | – | 51% | 0 | 11% | 2% | 8% | 4% | 9.9 | seed 1 2%, seed 2 8%, seed 3 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 9%, seed 6 14%, seed 7 17%, out 49% |
| LA Rams | 5–4 | +4.7 | – | 50% | 0 | 9% | 3% | 9% | 5% | 9.8 | seed 1 3%, seed 2 6%, seed 3 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 13%, seed 6 13%, seed 7 15%, out 50% |
| NYG Giants | 5–3–1 | −2.4 | 3 | 49% | −17 | 47% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 8.7 | seed 1 1%, seed 2 3%, seed 3 30%, seed 4 14%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 1%, seed 7 2%, out 51% |
| TB Buccaneers | 3–6 | +0.6 | – | 40% | 0 | 39% | <1% | 4% | 2% | 7.4 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 14%, seed 4 25%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out 60% |
| DAL Cowboys | 4–5 | +0.5 | – | 37% | +7 | 35% | <1% | 4% | 2% | 8.0 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 2%, seed 3 17%, seed 4 17%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 63% |
| CAR Panthers | 3–5 | −2.1 | 4 | 23% | 0 | 22% | <1% | 2% | 1% | 6.8 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 9%, seed 4 13%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 77% |
| NO Saints | 3–5 | −1.9 | – | 22% | 0 | 21% | <1% | 2% | 1% | 6.8 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 8%, seed 4 13%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out 78% |
| ATL Falcons | 3–6 | −1.6 | – | 18% | 0 | 17% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 6.7 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 6%, seed 4 11%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 82% |
| WAS Commanders | 3–5–1 | −1.4 | – | 18% | +9 | 17% | <1% | 1% | 1% | 7.0 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 10%, seed 4 7%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 82% |
| PHI Eagles | 2–7 | −5.5 | – | 1% | 0 | 1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 4.6 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 under 1%, out 99% |
| ARI Cardinals | 3–6 | −4.6 | – | 1% | 0 | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% | 6.1 | seed 1 under 1%, seed 2 under 1%, seed 3 under 1%, seed 4 under 1%, seed 5 under 1%, seed 6 under 1%, seed 7 1%, out 99% |
What the columns mean
- Rating: how many points better (+) or worse (−) than an average team on a neutral field, from the betting market’s point spreads and every result so far.
- Seed today: the playoff seed if the season ended now, with the NFL’s tiebreakers.
- Make playoffs and the other odds: the share of the simulated seasons in which it happened. “<1%” and “>99%” are not certainties; 100% and 0% appear only when they are proven.
- x, y, z, e (after a team): proven from the results so far, not simulated: x clinched a playoff spot, y clinched the division, z clinched the No. 1 seed, e eliminated. Until the last week they come from the win totals alone (no combination of results can change them, whatever the tiebreakers do), so a few clinches that rest on tiebreakers show up later than the NFL announces them; in the last week every combination of results is checked.
- Change, week 10: the change in the chance to make the playoffs, in percentage points, since before the first game of week 10.
- No. 1 seed (bye): only the top seed in each conference skips the wild-card round.
- Seed chances: one column per seed, 1 to 7 (the gap separates the four division winners from the three wild cards); the column’s height is the chance. Each team’s page has the numbers.
The race for the No. 1 pick
The chance of each team getting the first pick of the 2027 draft: the worst record, with the draft’s own tiebreakers (the weaker schedule picks first), in the same simulations. Teams under 0.5% are left out.
| Team | Record | Average wins | No. 1 pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN Titans | 1–7 | 3.6 | 31% |
| LAC Chargers | 0–8 | 3.3 | 31% |
| MIA Dolphins | 1–7 | 3.6 | 18% |
| PHI Eagles | 2–7 | 4.6 | 8% |
| NYJ Jets | 2–7 | 4.9 | 6% |
| IND Colts | 2–7 | 5.3 | 5% |
| ARI Cardinals | 3–6 | 6.1 | 1% |
Games that matter this week · Scenario tool · How the odds work